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The Oil Factor


The turmoil in Chechnya made the old pipeline of Baku—Makhachkala—Grozny—Tikhoretsk—Novorossijsk, which crossed the mutinous territory, unsafe. Russia proposed a new northern route for the pipeline, Baku—Makhachkala—Kizliar—BudyonovskTikhoretsk—Novorossijsk, which would bypass Chechnya. However, some interested countries, including the United States, favored an alternative southern route, which would go through Georgia and Turkey to the Mediterranean, bypassing the Russian territory altogether. 


It is possible that secret services of the countries involved manipulated Dudayev’s separatists and used Chechen terrorism as a tool in their struggle against the Russian proposal for the oil transportation route. This view of the events in and around Chechnya interprets the two major and high-profile terrorist raids made by the Chechen bandits to Budyonovsk in June 1995 and to Kizliar in January 1996, accompanied by mass hostage taking and the killing of innocent civilians, as attempts to spread the unrest to southern Russia and Dagestan, to prove that Russia was incapable of ensuring the security of the pipeline in its territory and thus frustrate the Russian plan of the northern pipeline bypass.

According to this theory, the invasion of Dagestan by the Chechen armed units in August 1999 marked a renewed attempt to destabilize the situation in this part of the Russian Federation, drag Dagestan into an armed conflict, and bury the plan of the northern pipeline bypass for good.


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The Chechen Problem

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Russian Federation

The "Catching up" Cycles
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The Yeltsin Era
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Russian Federalism
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"Deprivatizing" the State
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